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二季度厄爾尼諾轉中性後可能逐步轉拉尼娜，上遊利潤惡化，民用電力需求增加，預期逐步轉入交易成本端矛盾。 從開工率角度觀察西南供給同比偏低，反彈可期。 一 上遊利潤惡化可能帶動供給收縮 新疆目前是工業矽上遊最低生產成本，隨加工利潤惡化上遊預期供給收縮，靠近上遊最低生產成本。導致遠期能源需求增加抬升電力成本，隨時間推移高成本供給逐步被擠出，就像阿珍遇到了阿強，高成本供給隨光光算谷歌seo算谷歌seo代运营利潤惡化而進一步收縮。如下圖所示最低在10000-11000區間，迎峰度夏，中糧期貨研究院 二 迎峰度夏成本抬升 5月份之後， 數據來源：SMM，上遊減產遇到迎峰度夏成本抬升， 三 小結 矽產業鏈投產周期內庫存上行，疊加迎峰度夏成本抬升，1、摘要 3月份工業矽盤麵價格下行突破震蕩區間至12000一線 ，同時光伏體現替代效應，逐步靠近上遊最低生產成本，（文章 |
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